In an interview with MacMinute, Andy Hertzfeld sees the Windows monopoly disintegrating over the next five years.

Listen to him:

...The process is already well underway, and you'll see it first oversea in places like China and India," Hertzfeld says. "It won't be replaced by another monopoly; instead, the common system software foundation will be based on open source software that is owned by the public and open to innovation at every level. There is the potential for a much more healthy computer industry, and I believe it's really going to happen before the end of the decade....

Good to know that my gut feelings are shared by someone like him...